What NACAC Discussions Missed About AI

For many admissions teams, FAFSA submissions have traditionally been viewed as a strong signal of student interest. However, in reality, not all FAFSA submissions indicate serious intent to enroll. As competition for students increases, it's critical to re-evaluate how FAFSA data is interpreted, especially in light of the information colleges can't access.

One important data element that has been affected is FAFSA Position, eliminated about a decade ago, which provided insights into where a student listed a particular college relative to others on their application. For years, many institutions used FAFSA Position to infer a student’s level of interest—assuming that being listed first or second meant the student was highly likely to enroll. While this wasn't a formal tool, the position was often treated as an important clue in the enrollment puzzle. However, due to concerns from the Department of Education about how colleges were using this information, FAFSA Position is no longer available. This change forces institutions to rely on other indicators of interest, and it underscores the need to diversify strategies for assessing commitment.

Why FAFSA Submissions Alone Don't Reflect Engagement

While none of us have assumed that every FAFSA submission equals similar levels of intent - this data blindspot has left us no alternative way of measuring this signal by student. Students now apply to more schools than ever before, and many submit FAFSAs to schools they’re considering only as “backup” options. Completing the FAFSA is simply a procedural step for many students, not a declaration of their commitment to attend a particular institution.

As a result, colleges that heavily weigh FAFSA submissions may end up focusing resources on students who have no serious intention of enrolling. Without the added layer of insight from FAFSA Position, schools are left with less context, making it more difficult to gauge genuine interest based on FAFSA data alone.

The Changing Landscape of College Decision-Making

The dynamics of student decision-making have evolved over the years, but FAFSA submissions are no longer a reliable indicator of where a student will eventually commit. In today’s environment, students submit multiple applications and FAFSA forms, often as a matter of precaution rather than as an expression of intent. In this climate, admissions teams need to be more cautious about assuming that FAFSA submissions equate to real interest.

Additionally, the inability to access FAFSA Position means schools can no longer know where they stand relative to other institutions. This lack of visibility into a student’s preferences highlights the growing importance of using additional methods—such as behavioral data, engagement metrics, and predictive modeling—to better understand and prioritize students who are truly interested in enrolling.

Prioritizing Engagement Over FAFSA Data

The shift away from relying on FAFSA Position presents an opportunity for admissions teams to reframe how they assess student intent. Rather than focusing on FAFSA submissions as a primary indicator, schools should shift their attention to other forms of student engagement. Metrics such as website visits, participation in virtual tours, attendance at campus events, and interactions with admissions officers can provide far more reliable insights into a student’s commitment to your institution.

In addition, colleges can leverage machine learning and predictive analytics to better understand how engagement behaviors correlate with enrollment decisions. By analyzing patterns in student interactions—such as the frequency of communication, the types of inquiries made, or the timing of their engagement—admissions teams can develop a more nuanced understanding of student intent. These insights help schools prioritize their outreach efforts toward students who are most likely to matriculate, rather than relying solely on the submission of financial aid forms.

Diversifying Your Approach to Student Commitment

The end of FAFSA Position data had forced an abandonment of nuance in interpreting the signal of FAFSA submissions. The rise of high-level data science now allows for a reassessment of how colleges interpret FAFSA submissions, making it clear that this form alone should not be the main driver of admissions decisions. While FAFSA remains an important part of the financial aid process, it is no longer a reliable indicator of student commitment. By focusing more on engagement behaviors and leveraging data-driven insights, admissions teams can make smarter, more informed decisions about how to allocate their resources and shape their admit pool.

In today’s competitive landscape, relying on a single metric—like FAFSA—can result in missed opportunities and misallocated efforts. Schools that embrace a broader, more holistic approach to understanding student commitment will be better equipped to build strong, resilient incoming classes.

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For years, admissions teams have counted on the FAFSA as a cornerstone of their financial aid and admissions strategy. With an October 1st release date set in stone, institutions relied on the steady flow of submissions to plan their outreach and shape their admit pool. However, this reliable timeline has now been disrupted, exposing a critical vulnerability for colleges that have been overly dependent on the FAFSA to gauge student interest. The FAFSA delay marks a second consecutive year where the expected cycle has been upended. This pattern should be a clear signal to admissions leaders: it's time to rethink how we manage our admit pools.

The Breakdown of FAFSA's Predictability

Historically, the FAFSA’s early October release provided a predictable starting point for assessing student commitment and financial needs. Schools built their outreach, financial aid processing, and admissions decisions around this key date, operating with a sense of security. But as we've seen with recent delays, the assumption that FAFSA timelines are fixed has become increasingly precarious. The December release date, following a similar delay last year, illustrates that colleges can no longer take for granted that FAFSA submissions will arrive when expected.

This shift forces admissions teams to question how much weight they place on FAFSA as a primary marker of student interest. If your strategy depends too heavily on the timing of FAFSA submissions, you risk missing critical engagement opportunities during the application season. Worse, by the time FAFSA data arrives, your institution may have lost touch with key students who moved on to other institutions that engaged them earlier.

The Risks of Relying on FAFSA Timelines

The delayed release of the FAFSA creates two specific risks for schools: missed engagement opportunities with genuinely interested students and misallocated resources on students who have no intent to enroll. Admissions teams have traditionally viewed FAFSA completion as an indication of student commitment—early filers were seen as more engaged and eager to secure their spot. This logic, however, breaks down in an environment where the FAFSA’s release is unpredictable.

Colleges that wait for FAFSA submissions to trigger their next round of outreach are likely to lose students in the interim, as the delay shortens the engagement window. Prospective students who are ready to make decisions in October and November will not have their FAFSA data processed, meaning schools will miss a key opportunity to connect with them at a critical point in their decision-making process. Furthermore, as more students submit FAFSAs late in the cycle, admissions teams may find themselves overloaded with financial aid applications that don't necessarily reflect serious interest. This leads to wasted time and effort pursuing students who have no plans to enroll, detracting from more meaningful engagement with likely candidates.

Engagement Over Aid Forms: What Really Matters

What’s becoming increasingly clear is that FAFSA submissions are no longer the most reliable indicator of student intent. Engagement—both before and after financial aid packages are delivered—offers a much clearer picture of a student’s likelihood to enroll.

Admissions teams should focus on engagement behaviors that reveal a student’s true interest in the institution. For example, how often are students visiting your website or interacting with your admissions team? Are they attending virtual events, campus tours, or responding to personalized outreach? These touchpoints provide valuable signals of interest long before a FAFSA is ever submitted. In a world where the FAFSA is delayed or unreliable, these engagement metrics become far more valuable in predicting yield than a financial aid form.

After the aid package is delivered, the way a student responds can also tell you a great deal about their intent to enroll. Are they asking follow-up questions, engaging with financial aid officers, or taking steps to confirm their spot? The strongest indicators of enrollment are often found in these post-aid interactions, not in whether a student simply submitted a FAFSA. Admissions teams that track and respond to this type of engagement data will be better positioned to shape their admit pool effectively, regardless of FAFSA timing.

Building a More Resilient Strategy

The unpredictability of FAFSA timelines is a wake-up call for colleges to diversify the metrics they rely on for managing their admit pool. Instead of waiting for FAFSA submissions, schools must pivot to a more flexible strategy that emphasizes early and ongoing student engagement.

Data-driven tools, such as machine learning models, can help admissions teams identify key engagement patterns and predict which students are most likely to enroll. These insights enable schools to tailor their outreach, focusing on students who show genuine interest through their behavior rather than simply relying on FAFSA submissions. Institutions that integrate this kind of predictive engagement strategy will not only improve their yield but also ensure they are focusing on the right students, even in a disrupted admissions cycle.

By shifting away from an over-reliance on FAFSA and toward a more comprehensive, engagement-driven approach, schools can better navigate the uncertainties of the admissions landscape. This shift will help colleges connect with the right students at the right time, ultimately leading to stronger classes and more consistent enrollment outcomes.

The disruptions in FAFSA release dates aren’t just logistical challenges; they represent a broader need for admissions teams to rethink how they shape their admit pools. Schools that continue to rely on FAFSA timing as the cornerstone of their strategy risk missing out on meaningful engagement opportunities. By focusing on student behavior and engagement—both before and after aid is delivered—admissions teams can build a more resilient, adaptive strategy that keeps them competitive in an ever-changing landscape.

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If there’s one takeaway from the AI buzz at NACAC, it’s that while robots aren’t going to be reading your transcripts or taking over your job anytime soon, they can certainly help make it easier. Let’s face it, AI is not the admissions counselor of the future—but it can be the best assistant you’ve ever had. Imagine having a tool that frees you up from guessing games, helps you focus on the right students, and gives you the confidence to approach each interaction with clarity.

But as we wrap up this series, let's look ahead: How will AI continue to reshape admissions? Spoiler alert—it’s not about robot overlords writing your acceptance letters. It’s about making your job more effective, efficient, and, dare we say, a little bit more enjoyable. Here’s how.

AI Enhances Your Expertise, Not Replaces It

At this point, we’ve debunked the myth that AI is coming to steal your job. Instead, AI is here to help you shine. Think of AI as your trusty sidekick, the Robin to your Batman. You’ve got the people skills, intuition, and experience—AI just gives you the data to back up your instincts. By analyzing student behavior and predicting outcomes, AI lets you make smarter decisions, faster.

Imagine knowing exactly when a student is ready to apply or needs a gentle nudge. Instead of wasting time on broad, generic communications, AI helps you focus on personalized, data-driven outreach that matters. You still get to build relationships with students; AI just makes sure you’re doing it at the right time with the right message.

A Future with More Fun, Less Guesswork

One of the greatest things about AI is that it takes the guesswork out of your day-to-day tasks. No more wondering whether a student is serious about applying or what message will resonate. AI has done the heavy lifting, analyzing behavior patterns, predicting next steps, and flagging the students who need your attention most. What does that mean for you? Less time staring at spreadsheets and more time doing the part of the job you love—actually connecting with students.

And let’s be real: AI can also spare you some of the more tedious parts of the job. Did a student suddenly go quiet after showing early interest? AI can tell you when to re-engage, so you're not left in the dark. It’s like having a crystal ball for admissions, except without all the mysterious fog.

The Human Touch Still Matters

As we look to the future, one thing is certain: the human touch will always matter in admissions. Sure, AI can help pinpoint student needs, predict behavior, and personalize outreach, but it can’t replace the empathy, understanding, and personal connection that admissions professionals bring to the table. AI doesn’t get excited about campus tours, and it won’t cheer when a student gets accepted—that’s all you.

AI gives you the insights, but you get to make the magic happen. The future of admissions is not about choosing between humans and machines—it’s about leveraging AI to help you be the best counselor you can be.

The Best of Both Worlds

So, what’s the future of AI in admissions? It’s not about replacing people—it’s about creating a seamless partnership where AI takes care of the data crunching, and you focus on what really matters: building relationships and supporting students as they navigate their educational journey.

In the end, AI isn’t about making things colder or more robotic; it’s about freeing up your time and making your job more human. The future of admissions is brighter (and more efficient) with AI by your side. So go ahead, embrace the partnership—and maybe even have a little fun while you’re at it.

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