The FAFSA Delay - A Curveball In Admissions Engagement

What They Say vs What They Do: The Financial Aid Disconnect

Every spring, institutions invest enormous energy in perfecting their financial aid strategy. And understandably so—survey data consistently ranks “financial aid” and “scholarship amount” as top factors in student decision-making.

But here’s the paradox: when we look at the actual enrollment outcomes, financial aid amounts don’t rise to the top in predictive power.

At enroll ml, our machine learning models analyze real-time behavioral signals across the funnel. After three years of deployment and tens of millions of student records processed, we’ve found that financial aid amount is rarely a top predictor of enrollment.

Why the disconnect?

Because what students say—and what they do—often diverge. Behavioral science calls this the gap between stated preference and revealed preference. In enrollment, it plays out like this:

• Students say aid was the reason they didn’t enroll.
• But the data shows their engagement dropped long before the award.
• Or that they received a generous award—but never responded at all.

Financial aid is a stimulus, not a decision driver. The key isn’t the size of the award—it’s what the student does after receiving it. Did they log in? Schedule a meeting? Submit documents? Go dark?

That’s where the real insight lives. enroll ml decodes not just whether a student received aid, but how they responded. And those reactions—fast engagement, lingering silence, last-minute activity—are far more predictive than the dollar amount.

As you guide your team through yield season, don’t rely solely on what students say. Pay attention to what they do. That’s where the enrollment decision actually happens.
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If you're interested in further conversation on this topic, I invite you to watch a recording of an enroll ml webinar from August, 2024, How Predictive Is Financial Aid, with Matt Osborne from Ardeo Education. https://www.crowdcast.io/c/aid

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The future of college admissions isn’t just about generating more applications or refining marketing strategies. It’s about how we engage with students once they’re in the funnel. Institutions that focus on personalized, proactive outreach—targeting the right students with meaningful engagement—will outperform their peers in yield, retention, and student satisfaction.

Those who don’t? They’ll risk becoming marketing machines, focused more on response rates than building real relationships with students.

The Risk of a Marketing-Driven Future:
If proactive outreach isn’t widely adopted, admissions will continue to drift toward a purely marketing-driven profession. Response rates, open rates, and click-throughs will dominate the conversation, but real student engagement will fall by the wayside.

Colleges will see more applications, but fewer enrollments. Counselors will spend more time crafting mass emails and less time guiding students through critical decisions. This shift will erode both enrollment outcomes and counselor morale.

Technology Is the Key to Making the Shift:
Some institutions hesitate to adopt proactive outreach because they believe it’s too hard to scale. But the reality is, technology makes this shift not only possible but essential.

Machine learning and advanced data analytics allow institutions to identify students who are most engaged—those who are genuinely considering enrollment but need counseling to make a decision. This level of insight isn’t something you can achieve with pivot tables, no matter how much you love Excel.

Unless you’re prepared to build an in-house team of data scientists (which most institutions aren’t), the key is to partner with platforms that can provide these insights at scale. Tools like enroll ml can decode complex engagement patterns, helping counselors focus on the students who matter most.

Why Some Institutions Will Resist (and Why They’ll Fall Behind):
Many institutions will resist this shift, clinging to the belief that batch emails to groups of 40 to 400 students are “proactive enough.” The assumption is that personalized outreach isn’t scalable, especially for larger public institutions.

But here’s the truth: proactive outreach doesn’t have to apply to every student. The key is focusing on those who are clearly interested and engaged. Institutions that adopt this mindset—whether large or small—will outperform their market position because they’re connecting with the right students at the right time.

The Mindset Shift Admissions Needs:
The biggest barrier to adopting proactive outreach isn’t technology—it’s mindset. For too long, admissions teams have relied on the same formula: subject line, information dump, call to action. This approach may generate responses, but it doesn’t build relationships.

The institutions that thrive in the coming years will be those that identify who to engage with and approach those students with thoughtful, personalized communication. It’s not about volume—it’s about precision.

Proactive outreach isn’t just a trend—it’s the new standard for admissions success. Colleges that embrace personalized, data-driven engagement will see higher yields, stronger counselor morale, and better student outcomes. Those that don’t? They’ll be stuck chasing response rates in an increasingly crowded market.

The future of admissions belongs to those who engage with purpose. Are you ready?

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In college admissions, success is often measured by yield rates and enrollment numbers. But behind those numbers are two critical groups often overlooked: the counselors doing the work and the students making life-changing decisions. When admissions teams shift from broad, transactional outreach to proactive, personalized engagement, the results are profound. Not only do enrollment numbers improve, but counselor morale and student satisfaction soar.

Proactive Outreach = Increased Engagement with the Right Students
Proactive outreach isn’t about sending more emails or making more calls—it’s about engaging the right students at the right time. When counselors move beyond generic calls-to-action and focus on understanding a student’s unique needs, they create meaningful connections. This targeted approach leads to higher engagement from students who are actively considering their options, which naturally translates into better enrollment outcomes.

Imagine spending less time chasing down students who’ve disengaged and more time nurturing those on the verge of committing. That’s the power of proactive outreach—focusing efforts where they’ll have the greatest impact.

The Morale Boost Counselors Deserve
Admissions counselors don’t get into this field to run email campaigns. They’re here because they want to make a difference in students’ lives. But when outreach becomes a numbers game—sending mass emails, waiting for responses, and repeating the cycle—it’s easy to feel disconnected from the actual impact of their work.

Proactive outreach changes that. When counselors invest time in one-on-one conversations and personalized engagement, they see the direct impact of their efforts. They’re not just moving students through a funnel—they’re helping them navigate one of the biggest decisions of their lives. This sense of purpose is invaluable and leads to higher job satisfaction and reduced burnout.

Reducing Burnout in Admissions Teams
The admissions landscape has changed dramatically in recent years. Counselors face larger applicant pools, increased pressure to meet enrollment targets, and more administrative tasks than ever before. This environment is ripe for burnout.

But here’s the thing—burnout isn’t just about workload; it’s about the nature of the work. Repetitive, low-impact tasks like mass emails and generic follow-ups drain counselors' energy because they lack meaning. Proactive outreach, on the other hand, allows counselors to do the work they’re passionate about: connecting with students, offering guidance, and making a tangible difference.

A Better Experience for Students
Proactive outreach doesn’t just benefit counselors—it transforms the student experience as well. When students receive personalized attention from counselors who understand their unique needs, they feel seen, supported, and valued. This level of engagement helps students make more informed decisions and increases their confidence in choosing the right institution.

Students aren’t just looking for information—they’re looking for guidance. Proactive, personalized outreach provides that guidance in a way that mass communication never can.

The Misconception of Inefficiency
One of the biggest misconceptions about proactive outreach is that it’s inefficient. On the surface, spending an hour on a one-on-one call with a student might seem like a poor use of time compared to sending 500 emails. But in reality, there’s no better use of that hour.

A single, meaningful conversation with a student actively exploring their options can have a bigger impact on enrollment than dozens of generic emails. Proactive outreach isn’t about working harder—it’s about working smarter.

The Ripple Effect:
When admissions teams embrace proactive outreach, the benefits are far-reaching:

• Higher Yield: Engaging the right students at the right time leads to more commitments and reduced melt.
• Better Counselor Morale: Counselors feel fulfilled and energized when they see the direct impact of their work.
• Enhanced Student Experience: Students feel supported, valued, and confident in their enrollment decisions.

Proactive outreach isn’t just a strategy—it’s a mindset shift. It’s about focusing on meaningful, personalized engagement that benefits everyone involved. When counselors move from transactional to transformational outreach, they not only improve enrollment outcomes but also find renewed purpose in their work. And when counselors thrive, so do students—and so do institutions.

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